Are Central Florida Home Prices Actually Falling? Here’s What the MLS Data Says

Spend five minutes reading housing headlines right now and you’d think home prices are falling everywhere.

So I pulled the numbers for Orange and Seminole counties to see if that’s actually happening here.

It isn’t. At least not based on the latest year-over-year data.

But that doesn’t mean sellers suddenly have all the leverage again either.

The market has changed. Buyers have more breathing room, homes aren’t disappearing in a weekend, and sellers have to be much more realistic about pricing.

Here’s what the local numbers actually show.

Seminole County Home Prices Are Up From Last Year

In July 2025, the median residential sale price in Seminole County was $415,000.

In July 2026, it was $439,940.

That’s an increase of about 6% year over year.

Here’s the bigger picture:

🏠 Median Sale Price

$415,000 → $439,940

UP 6.0%

🏷️ Active Listings

1,972 → 1,784

DOWN 9.5%

🤝 Closed Sales

853 → 788

DOWN 7.6%

📅 Median Days to Sell

24 days → 22 days

2 DAYS FASTER

July 2025 compared with July 2026. Source: Stellar MLS residential statistics for Seminole County.

Fewer homes were available. Fewer homes sold. But the homes that did sell had a higher median price and sold slightly faster than they did a year earlier.

That’s not a market where prices are broadly falling.

Orange County Looks a Little Different

Next door in Orange County, the median residential sale price went from $325,000 in July 2025 to $335,000 in July 2026.

That’s about a 3.1% increase.

Here’s what else changed:

🏠 Median Sale Price

$325,000 → $335,000

UP 3.1%

🏷️ Active Listings

10,455 → 9,880

DOWN 5.5%

🤝 Closed Sales

2,447 → 2,482

UP 1.4%

📅 Median Days to Sell

33 days → 28 days

5 DAYS FASTER

July 2025 compared with July 2026. Source: Stellar MLS residential statistics for Orange County.

Orange County actually had slightly more sales than last July, while inventory was down and homes sold five days faster.

Again, not exactly what you’d expect if home prices were in free fall.

So Why Does It Feel Like Prices Are Falling?

Here’s a good example of why housing statistics can be confusing.

The median Orange County sale price was:

June 2026: $357,250

July 2026: $335,000

That’s a 6.2% drop in one month.

It would be pretty easy to turn that into a headline:

“Orange County Home Prices Drop More Than 6%!”

Technically true.

But compare July with the same month last year:

July 2025: $325,000

July 2026: $335,000

Now prices are up 3.1%.

Same July number. Completely different story.

That’s why I’m much more interested in year-over-year numbers and the larger trend than whether the median moved up or down from one month to the next.

The types and price ranges of homes that happen to close in a particular month can move the median quite a bit.

But This Definitely Isn’t 2021 Anymore

Anyone who bought a house a few years ago probably remembers how ridiculous things got.

Multiple offers. Bidding wars. Buyers waiving things they really didn’t want to waive. Houses hitting the market and disappearing almost immediately.

That part has changed dramatically.

In July 2021, the median time to sell in Seminole County was just 5 days.

In July 2026, it was 22 days.

Orange County went from 6 days in July 2021 to 28 days in July 2026.

For buyers, that’s a big difference.

You can actually look at another house.

You can think about your offer.

You can negotiate.

And if a seller prices a house like it’s still 2021, you can move on to something else.

Inventory Is Actually Lower Than Last Year

This may be the number that surprised me most.

If home prices were falling because houses were piling up with no buyers, we’d expect to see inventory climbing.

That’s not what the July numbers show.

Seminole County

1,972 → 1,784 active listings

DOWN 9.5%

Orange County

10,455 → 9,880 active listings

DOWN 5.5%

That matters because fewer homes for sale can help support prices, especially for desirable homes in desirable neighborhoods.

It also helps explain something buyers are experiencing right now:

Having more negotiating power doesn’t necessarily mean every house is a bargain.

A great house that’s priced correctly can still attract plenty of attention.

The “Central Florida Market” Isn’t One Market

This is something broad housing headlines miss completely.

Orange and Seminole counties are neighbors, and even they aren’t behaving exactly the same.

July closed sales were down 7.6% in Seminole County but up 1.4% in Orange County.

Median prices increased about 6% in Seminole and 3.1% in Orange.

Now drill down another level.

A house in Winter Springs isn’t necessarily competing with a condo near downtown Orlando.

Oviedo isn’t Lake Nona.

Lake Mary isn’t Kissimmee.

And even within the same neighborhood, a nicely updated house that’s priced correctly can have a completely different experience than the house down the street that started $50,000 too high.

So when you hear that “Florida home prices are falling” or “the Orlando market is down,” that doesn’t tell you very much about what your particular house is worth.

If You’re Buying, You Have More Room to Negotiate

Here’s the good news for buyers:

You don’t necessarily need home prices to crash to get a better deal.

Purchase price is only one part of a real estate negotiation.

Depending on the house, seller and type of financing, you may be able to negotiate closing-cost assistance, an interest-rate buydown, repairs, credits, a home warranty or other terms.

And sometimes those can be worth more to you than simply getting the seller to knock a few thousand dollars off the purchase price.

For example, what’s better on a $425,000 house?

$10,000 off the purchase price?

Or:

$10,000 toward your closing costs or financing?

The answer may not be what you think.

I’m going to break that one down separately because it deserves its own article.

If You’re Selling, Pricing Still Matters

The numbers don’t suggest sellers should panic and slash their prices because they heard the housing market is falling.

But buyers aren’t desperate anymore either.

They have choices, and they have time.

An overpriced house can sit while the properly priced house down the street sells.

And once a listing has been sitting for a while and gone through a couple of price reductions, buyers start asking the question every seller hates:

“What’s wrong with it?”

Sometimes nothing is wrong with it.

It was simply priced wrong from the beginning.

The market isn’t dead. It’s just less forgiving.

So, Are Central Florida Home Prices Falling?

Based on the Stellar MLS residential data through July 2026, not broadly in the two counties we looked at.

Seminole County

Median sale price: UP 6.0%

Active inventory: DOWN 9.5%

Homes sold: DOWN 7.6%

Median selling time: 2 days faster

Orange County

Median sale price: UP 3.1%

Active inventory: DOWN 5.5%

Homes sold: UP 1.4%

Median selling time: 5 days faster

That doesn’t mean prices can’t fall from here. Markets change. Interest rates change. Inventory changes.

It also doesn’t mean every homeowner’s property increased 3% or 6%. A countywide median measures the homes that actually sold. It isn’t an appraisal of your house.

But the latest local numbers don’t support the idea that home prices are simply dropping across Central Florida.

If you’re thinking about buying or selling, there’s a better question to ask:

What’s happening with homes like yours—or the kind of home you want to buy—in the area you’re actually interested in?

That’s the market that matters.

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Market data in this article was pulled from Stellar MLS and reflects residential listing and sales statistics for Orange and Seminole counties through July 2026. MLS data may change as listings are updated or corrected. Median sale prices represent the midpoint of properties sold during a period and should not be interpreted as the change in value of an individual property.